Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Southern Copper?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Southern Copper (SCCO Quick QuoteSCCO - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 10 days from its next quarterly earnings release on February 2, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.79 a share.

Southern Copper's Earnings ESP sits at +5.13%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.79 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75. SCCO is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

SCCO is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is International Paper (IP Quick QuoteIP - Free Report) .

International Paper is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 1, 2024. IP's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.35 a share nine days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Paper is $0.34, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +1.74%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, SCCO and IP could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>